Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.699863 3.700481 5.126470 7.380451 1.099942e+01 1.686419e+01 27.744201
2025-02-16 1.802142 2.852498 4.668412 8.304645 1.618988e+01 3.491440e+01 93.722762
2025-02-23 1.197578 2.105429 3.922965 8.343640 2.094276e+01 6.549959e+01 342.184331
2025-03-02 0.810338 1.543273 3.190214 7.906857 2.519589e+01 1.185360e+02 1640.050639
2025-03-09 0.625874 1.293755 2.989182 8.824033 3.804689e+01 3.338633e+02 57079.186216
2025-03-16 0.489735 1.085150 2.766573 9.633182 5.721142e+01 1.169642e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.399313 0.944492 2.651230 10.963743 9.493480e+01 7.956109e+03 NaN
2025-03-30 0.328558 0.822211 2.515672 12.254070 1.599304e+02 2.034259e+05 NaN
2025-04-06 0.259176 0.672107 2.174817 11.846922 2.119898e+02 1.131767e+08 NaN
2025-04-13 0.204571 0.544383 1.835903 10.893885 2.540492e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.174721 0.483117 1.734567 11.775430 4.378254e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.156019 0.450923 1.743684 14.003608 1.040749e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.140306 0.425200 1.784512 17.457182 3.678454e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.122220 0.382862 1.703994 19.365842 1.177080e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.103283 0.329562 1.516355 18.823977 2.550060e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.086594 0.279294 1.310448 17.156093 4.145565e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.077529 0.256992 1.268235 19.128312 4.017302e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.069402 0.235518 1.214608 20.842655 2.954692e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.063313 0.220589 1.196314 23.949279 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.057749 0.205902 1.167872 26.999078 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.050892 0.182878 1.053290 25.616175 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.044556 0.160492 0.928725 22.945637 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.040980 0.150186 0.899418 24.980789 NaN NaN NaN